The logo for Goldman Sachs is seen on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, New York, U.S., November 17, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew KellyJan 10 (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve will hike interest rates four times this year and begin the runoff process for its balance sheet as soon as July, Goldman Sachs economists said.

The research arm of the U.S. investment bank earlier predicted the Fed would raise rates in March, June and September, but it now expects another hike in December.

The investment bank’s predicted rate is only modestly above market expectations for 2022, “but the gap grows significantly in subsequent years,” economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a note dated Sunday.


Traders ramped up bets for rate hikes this year after the U.S. central bank’s minutes from the December meeting suggested an earlier-than-expected rate hike and the possibility the Fed may cut its bond holdings sooner than many initially thought.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who is not a voter this year, said on Friday she could see the central bank shrinking its more than $8 trillion balance sheet soon after it has raised rates once or twice. read more

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Reporting by Aniruddha Ghosh in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri

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